需求回暖 無錫市場冷拔無縫鋼管再創新高

隨著需求的回暖，無錫市場冷拔無縫鋼管價格持續上揚，截至目前已創年內新高，韶鋼冷拔無縫鋼管已突破5000元/噸，節後累計漲幅已達300元/噸;庫存方面，市場庫存以及鋼廠庫存均創年內新低。具體情況如下：冷拔無縫鋼管價格創年內新高。今年月初延續去年月底冷拔無縫鋼管高位價格，不過一月份整體價格出現斷崖式下跌;月份春節過度期盤整態勢;春節後月份由於需求啟動緩慢，價格再度下滑;月份隨著需求的陸續恢復價格明顯回升，月受雨水天氣等影響需求不佳弱勢盤整，月份再度沖高，月份適度盤整;月份國慶後價格持續上揚創下年初高位後的價格新高，截至目前(月日)廣州韶鋼冷拔無縫鋼管價格為元噸，累計漲幅元噸。總體來看，截至目前今年以來的三個高點：第一個為年初延續去年的高價位，其中韶鋼螺紋價格為元噸;第二個高點：月日韶鋼螺紋元噸;第三個高點便是目前(月日)元噸，由此來看目前價格已基本接近年初高價位，創下年內的又一新高。
With the warming up of demand, the price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Wuxi market keeps rising, which has reached a new high in the year up to now. The cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Shaoguan Iron and Steel Company has exceeded 5000 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase has reached 300 yuan/ton after the festival. Specific circumstances are as follows: cold-drawn seamless steel pipe prices hit a new high in the year. At the beginning of this month, the high price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe continued at the end of last year, but the overall price fell sharply in January; the overdue consolidation trend of the Spring Festival in January; the price declined again in the month after the Spring Festival due to the slow start of demand; the price increased significantly in January with the recovery of demand, and the demand was not affected by rainy weather in the month. The price of cold-drawn seamless steel pipes in Guangzhou Shaoguan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. has risen to a new high since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of yuan tons. Overall, the three highs up to this year are as follows: the first is the continuation of last year's high price at the beginning of the year, in which the price of Shaoguan Steel's thread is yuan ton; the second is the month-day of Shaoguan Steel's thread yuan ton; the third is the current (month-day) yuan ton, from which we can see that the current price has basically approached the high price at the beginning of the year, and set a new one in the year. A new high. 市場庫存及鋼廠庫存均創新低。2017年全年廣州冷拔無縫鋼管庫存未突破80萬噸，主流在35-60萬噸之間徘徊，庫存高位在春節前後為72.3萬噸，低點在12月底為31.46萬噸。受去年年底及今年初南北價差大影響，今年1-3月份北材南下集中，至3月下旬達到高峰突破120萬噸，達到126.1萬噸，4月份後隨著需求的釋放庫存開始下降，至10月下旬創下全年新低，也是近兩年以來新低為27萬噸左右。
Market inventory and steel plant inventory are innovative low. In 2017, the stock of cold-drawn seamless steel tubes in Guangzhou did not exceed 800,000 tons, while the mainstream hovered between 350,000 and 600,000 tons. The high stock level was 723,000 tons around the Spring Festival and the low point was 314,600 tons at the end of December. Affected by the price gap between North and South at the end of last year and the彩色沥清地坪 beginning of this year, Beibu concentrated in the south from January to March, reaching a peak of 1.2 million tons in late March, reaching 1.261 million tons. After April, with the release of demand, inventory began to decline, reaching a new year low in late October, which is also a new low of about 270,000 tons in recent two years.
統計無錫省內主流鋼廠冷拔無縫鋼管庫存情況。從全年來看，省內主流鋼廠螺紋庫存主要維持區間在20-30萬噸，20萬噸以下非常短暫，年初1-2月份出現短暫的20萬噸以下以外，本月下旬再創新低在17.3萬噸左右。
Statistical analysis of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe inventory in mainstream steel plants in Wuxi Province. Thread stocks in mainstream steel mills in the province are mainly maintained in the range of 20-300,000 tons, with a very short period of less than 200,000 tons. A short period of less than 200,000 tons appeared in January-February at the beginning of the year, and a new low of about 173,000 tons was achieved in the latter part of this month.
南北螺紋價差有所拉大但基本處於合理范圍。全年來看，北京、上海、廣州三地市場冷拔無縫鋼管價格走勢基本一致，其中廣州與北京主流價差維持在元噸(過磅折算前)，價差保持在元噸以下以及元噸(過磅折算前)以上的均較為短暫，不過月份後隨著廣州價格的持續上揚，南北價差有所拉大，由月底的元噸至目前為止拉大至元噸，折算為過磅價差為元噸左右。上海與廣州螺紋價差目前在元噸左右，同理折算為過磅價差在元噸。由此來看，南北價差雖有拉大，但目前基本處於運費差合理范圍內，而前期價差較小或基本沒有價差。
The price difference between North and South threads has been widened, but it is basically in a reasonable range. Over the whole year, the price trend of cold-drawn seamless steel pipe in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou is basically the same. The price difference between Guangzhou and Beijing mainstream is maintained at Yuan tonne (before weighing conversion), while the price difference between Guangzhou mainstream and Beijing maintains below yuan tonne and above yuan tonne (before weighing conversion) is relatively short. However, with the continuous rise of Guangzhou prices after January, The North-South price gap has widened, from yuan tons at the end of the month to yuan tons so far, converted into over-weighted price difference of about yuan tons. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangzhou is currently about one yuan ton, which is equivalent to the over-weighted price difference of one yuan ton. From this point of view, although the North-South price gap has widened, it is basically within the reasonable range of freight difference, while the pre-price gap is small or basically no price difference.
據瞭解，考慮到月日新標的執行，本地大部分鋼廠月底開始有意降低廠內庫存，以防十一國慶假期庫存的增加，但意外的是今年十一假期期間需求表現強勁，出貨明顯好於往年，且部分廠傢日均出貨量不亞於平日正常工作日，導致十一後鋼廠庫存並未如預期增加反而始終保持低庫存;市場庫存方面，由於北方材及華東材等外省鋼廠到貨有限，而市場實際需求也好於往年及預期，整體庫存也維持低位;國慶假期後，由於市場需求較旺，主導鋼廠韶鋼、粵鋼、湘鋼等廠內庫存持續低位，且出現規格不齊，供不應求現象，導致廠傢出廠價格持續上調，周邊部分民營鋼廠庫存也基本低位運行，加之廣西环保督察影響，資源緊俏，廠傢紛紛上調出廠價格，推動市場價格全面上揚。
It is understood that, taking into account the implementation of the new target on January 2nd, most local steel mills began to intentionally reduce their in-plant inventory at the end of the month in order to prevent the increase of inventory during the Eleventh National Day holiday, but unexpectedly, during the Eleventh National Day holiday this year, demand performance was strong, shipments were significantly better than in previous years, and the average daily shipments of some manufacturers were no less than normal working days. As a result, after the 11th National Day, the stock of steel mills did not increase as expected, but kept low. In terms of market stock, due to the limited arrival of steel mills in other provinces, such as North China and East China, and the actual market demand was better than previous years and expectations, the overall stock also maintained low level. After the National Day holiday, due to the strong market demand, Shaoguan Steel and Guangdong dominated the steel mills. Steel, Xianggang and other factories have continued to have low inventories, irregular specifications and shortage of supply and demand, resulting in a sustained increase in factory prices, and some nearby private steel factories have basically operated at a low level. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection supervision in Guangxi, resource shortage, manufacturers have increased factory prices to promote a comprehensive rise in market prices.
對於下月價格走勢，考慮到新標執行鋼廠成本的上升，對市場價格提供有利支撐或一定推動;另一方面，目前市場價格已到較高位置，已是近兩年距去年年底沖高後的第二高位(年月中旬廣州韶鋼螺紋最高元噸，距目前價格差為元噸)。此外，隨著月的到來，北方需求的萎縮，南下資源勢必將有所增加，對本地價格將有所制約。綜合以上各方面因素考慮，預計月环氧地坪整體價格以震蕩偏強盤整為主。
For next month's price trend, considering the rising cost of the new standard implementation steel mill, it will provide favorable support or certain impetus to the market price; on the other hand, the current market price has reached a higher position, which is the second highest level in nearly two years after the end of last year's rise (the highest yuan tonne of thread in Guangzhou Shaoguan Steel in mid-January, the difference from the current price is RMB yuan). Tons). In addition, with the arrival of the month and the shrinking demand in the north, the resources going southward are bound to increase, which will restrict local prices. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the overall monthly price will be mainly consolidated with strong shocks.